The headlines capturing our attention as the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine rolls around are focused – naturally – on the abysmal human cost of Putin’s failing gambit. Russian personnel losses, the subject of claim, counter-claim and fierce debate – might have risen as high as 1.2 million troops. A less-reported facet of the struggle, however, reveals a situation worrying for Russian strategists and planners – and of intense interest to NATO intelligence analysts.
According to the respected International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia’s active tank fleet in late 2021 – just months before the invasion of Ukraine – stood at between 2,800 and 3,300 relatively modern main battle tanks. In addition, somewhere between 10,000-12,000 older vehicles were in long-term storage. Fast forward four years: Oryx – an independent open-source project that monitors equipment losses and reports only those that are verified by photographic or visual evidence – has documented over 3,000 Russian tank losses over that period. Tank production – which rose rapidly to 300 tanks per year in 2024 – falls woefully short of the required replacement rate, while the economic woes brought about as a result of international sanctions and pressure on Moscow are having detrimental effects on the normally robust Russian defence industry.
Additionally, satellite analysis reported by United24 Media suggests the stockpiles of tanks that were a legacy of the Soviet era have been heavily depleted as older vehicles were fed into the brutal tank warfare in Ukraine’s steppes and cities.
Ukrainian sources put Russian tank losses much higher than the Oryx assessment – figures of over 11,000 tanks and up to 100,000 other military vehicles – ranging from armoured fighting vehicles to utility trucks – have been bandied about. As is most often the case in areas of armed conflict, there may be confusion, disinformation and propaganda at work here. What is undeniable, however, is that Russian losses have been little short of catastrophic. It is also worthy of note that more modern tanks, such as the later models of the T-90, have proven to be mechanically unreliable and have had significant problems with the main armament autoloader system. Oh – incidentally, the much-vaunted T-14 Armata, the bogeyman of Russian equipment watchers, has failed to appear in-theatre at all. There has therefore been growing reliance on the older, less capable but more reliable T-72, which remains vulnerable to the drone- and artillery-heavy defences mounted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
By any rational set of assumptions, this rate of loss cannot be sustained. At some stage soon the decision has to be taken by Moscow as to what to do next. And that is the major concern in Western capitals right now. How far is the Putin regime – increasingly painted into a corner – willing to go in order to gain tactical and strategic advantage, save face and declare victory? Speculation breeds uncertainty and that, in turn, increases risk. If the rate of Russian losses continues at the present pace, the flashpoint at which a possibly catastrophic decision could be made also looms closer, causing nervousness in NATO capitals. The age-old Chinese proverb “may you live in interesting times” hovers on the horizon…
Headline image: A T-90 shown in ‘mufti’ in late 2021. (Russian state media)
