A year is a long time in politics. As recently as last year there were serious discussions seeking to bring Saudi Arabia into the regime created by the 2020 Abraham Accords – though the latter’s omission of any proposed resolution of the Palestinian question remained a stumbling block. Nevertheless, relative normalization of relations between the Kingdom and Israel seemed almost inevitable.
Enter Iran stage right. Riyadh’s reaction to the unprovoked assault from the Islamic Republic – a refusal to break diplomatic ties and a steadily increasing campaign to promote “self-restraint” on all sides while simultaneously seeking to vilify Israel – raised eyebrows in the region and globally. Iran has caused billions of dollars of damage to Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure yet it is Israel that is singled out to be the scapegoat for what amounts to ‘head in the sand’ diplomacy from Riyadh. A purported plan by Israel to destroy as much Arab infrastructure as possible and be the ‘last man standing’ is bandied around as literally incredible justification.
Last summer the state-owned media began to reverse course from admitting the existence of a path towards normalization with Israel. A fully sovereign Palestinian state became a prerequisite for any diplomatic rapprochement, which became impossible as a result. By year end the open hostility had expanded to include the UAE and the Abraham Accords.
The only viable answer to the question “why?”, in the views of some, is as a coverup for domestic failure. Erdogan in Turkey, Khameini in Iran (and, some may suggest, Trump in the USA) focus public attention on external aggressors to mask weakness on the home front. The Kingdom’s ‘Vision 2030’ seems to be in the terminal stages of collapsing, structural reform has failed and the economy is spinning out of control. Spending one’s way to modernity appears to have failed.
But is a reversal of policy and a reversion to the old, tired tactic of demonizing Israel going to work? Given the current balance of power and capability, that seems doubtful. But as long as this remains King Salman’s and MBS’ avowed policy, the rapprochement required to ensure a return to relative stability seems unlikely, to say the least. Injecting additional uncertainty into a barely balanced regional conflict with global effects seems ill-advised, if not downright irresponsible.
Tim Mahon
Headline image shows Saudi Arabia’s Shura Council in session. (Wikimedia Commons)
